Someone told me there was a Chinese curse that says, "may you live in interesting times." There are a few "interesting times" that sort of stick in my head associated with being a scientist. This is one of them.
In either 1986 or 1988 (I think the latter), I attended a conference organized by the American Geophysical Union and the American Society of Limnologists and Oceanographers. This conference is sometimes abbreviated AGU-ASLO. I had been working at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution for Dr. Oliver Zafiriou. I attended the conference to present (if it was 1986) some work done on the Cariaco Trench (an anoxic basin off the coast of Venezuela) or (if it was 1988) to present a study on production of nitric oxide by denitrifying bacteria.
The members of the American Geophysical Union do (and did) many things. Among them are seismic studies, mostly of earthquakes. However, there are other things besides normal continental drift which cause the earth to shake. These include blasting in quarries and other explosions. One source of big explosions is nuclear weapons. Here is the part about "interesting times." If you haven't noticed, we live in interesting times and one of the things making those times interesting is nuclear weapons.
In the early and mid 80’s, the talk of the time was the nuclear freeze, the comprehensive test ban treaty (never completed), using Europe as a “theater” for limited nuclear war (this made the Europeans nervous), deterrence, and mutually assured destruction. If you came of age in the 90's you need to realize that you came of age in a rather optimistic time. I came of age a few years earlier and we (we at least I did) thought about the nuclear arms race. My favorite analogy was the one where there are two people in a small room with a big open can of gasoline. The person with the most matches was somehow the winner. To put things in perspective, throughout the most of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80's there was on any given day the possibility that 500,000,000 could be dead within weeks, and there were those who had reason to believe many more would follow.
So there I was at this meeting one afternoon. My presentations were over. The sessions which were related to my work were over and I was looking at the schedule. A conference session on seismic detection of atomic bombs (or something thereabouts) caught my eye. The murmur of the times by itself might have caused me to be curious but I was particularly curious. For those who have looked at my office wall you might understand my particular curiosity. Others will have to use their imagination. Hmm... I thought. Why not have a look.
So I did. After a few minutes, I started to feel like a bit player is a film. The actors were as follows. There were several very earnest and also very well informed representatives from the National Resource Defense Council (I hope I have the name right, it has been a few years). The NRDC was primarily an environmental organization. These people looked like you might expect. Not a bunch of long-hairs like yours truly, but they were easily distinguishable from another group I will describe later. For those of you who think a scientific conference is a bunch of well dressed people in fancy suits and ties talking lofty thoughts, I have some news. It isn't so. Look around our department at your lecturers and professors. Repeat as necessary. It isn’t so. There are some scientists who do dress well, but they tend not to favor the polyester suit look. Many dress for comfort and often the result is the casual look. I even saw one guy show up in a cape (guy was a fruitcake). Not all meetings are the same. PITTCON (a conference for analytical chemists) tends to be more formal. I think that is due to analytical chemists being a necessary part of nearly all serious industry. It makes businessmen feel more confident when you have the “business look.” But the participants in AGU-ASLO were not as a rule a stuffy bunch. You get the picture.
In the audience was a very striking man who I think was Pakistani or Indian. Both countries were thought to be working on the development of atomic bombs at the time. The man had a few people with him, but he really stood out in a crowd. The reason he stood out was he had a very pronounced tick that caused his whole face to twitch every few seconds. It was very distracting to watch. In my head, I nicknamed him Mr. Twitch. I do not know his name and since he did not give a presentation, it would be hard to find out. So the second group in the room was Mr. Twitch and his entourage.
Group three were a group of strangely dressed people, at least for the place they were speaking. They were wearing lots of non-descript suits, ties, and accoutrements you would expect to go with the costume. In another context, they might have blended in well, but at AGU-ASLO they looked out of place.
Finally, there was a group (I include myself here) that was just there out of curiosity. Then the show started. Presentations got going. ..
The people in group one (the NRDC) spoke to the audience as a whole. They were showing data collected (as I recall) from Central Asia seismic monitors. Looking at what an earthquake looks like, what a quarry blast looks like, what a BIG quarry blast looks like, and trying to see whether there were unique "signatures" that could be recognized. This was fascinating, because I (and I expect you) had never thought about what might be involved in detecting an underground atomic bomb blast. At first it seems pretty obvious, then suppose someone you were suspicious of just said, "Well we had a minor earthquake...." or “We were just blasting in a quarry…” The NRDC was genuinely interested in whether a comprehensive test ban treaty was verifiable.
The people in group three also presented. While listening, I got the impression they were really talking to Mr. Twitch. They all seemed to be from small companies in Virginia. These small companies had some fascinating material. Slide shows like not many people have seen. Simulations of underground bomb blasts. Example: There was a "talk" which was a slide show of a bunch of trailers resting at ground zero ABOVE an underground bomb blast. They included a time series before, after, and during a test that took place under an island (I think it was called Amchitka - I will try to look it up) in Alaska.
As you might imagine ground zero is not a good place to be. The trailers were messed up afterward. The speaker dryly remarked that the ground accelerated upwards (briefly) at 18 g's. I got the impression that this was lesson 1 for Mr. Twitch. Specifically, when you blow up yours, don't hang around at ground zero. Now, you may be wondering how a small company in Virginia gets pictures like that. Go figure....
Another example, there was another chap from another company. He had some really flashy full color simulations of rock fracturing, etc. around a bomb blast. This gives rise to a cavern that forms which is often followed by collapse, creating a ground level crater. He showed a series of time points in the simulation. Then he dryly remarked something to the effect, this is what happens provided you place the bomb well OUTSIDE the WATER table. If you put it into the water table, or close to it, the top of the crater comes off. The chemists among you will appreciate that it is easier to vaporize water than it is rock. This has, apparently, potentially catastrophic consequences. A serious blast instead of a “little” crater. As before, enquiring minds would like to know how a small company in Virginia got all the data to do that simulation....
Again, this fellow seemed to be talking to Mr. Twitch. If my memory serves me, Mr. Twitch asked how far above or below the water table “one” might want to be. It has been nearly 20 years, but my recollection now is that the man giving the presentation asked Mr. Twitch to have a word with him privately after the session was over.
This took up the better part of the afternoon. It was most fascinating. I have never stumbled across its like again - sometimes I am thankful - other times the fact that I have not makes me uneasy. My conclusions at the end were these. The US knew what the country Mr. Twitch came from was up to. Over the course of the afternoon they told him: 1) We know what you are doing. 2) When you test we will know. 3) When you test, don't be stupid and hurt yourself or others. 4) Here are a few tips to avoid hurting anyone.
Unfortunately, we still live in interesting times... It is indeed our curse.
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